2015 Tour de France—So Far

The 2015 Tour of France (a.k.a. the Super Bowl and World Series of cycling combined) promises to be one of the most exciting in years.  Usually there are one or two strong contenders, but this year is different.  The fantastic four are:

1. Christopher Froome, the 2013 winner who races for Sky Cycling.  Froome has already worn the yellow jersey once in the 2015 TDF.
2. Nairo Quintana, a Columbian who won last year's Giro d'Italia (Tour of Italy).  Quintana finished second in the 2013 Tour.  He can go uphill faster than most amateurs can ride downhill and is only 25.
3. Vincenzo Nibali, who won last year and has won all of cycling's 3–week tours (Italy, France, and Spain).  Only five other cyclists have accomplished this feat.
4. Alberto Contador, who has also won all three grand tours.  Contador has already won this year's Giro and is going for a Giro-Tour double.  This is sort of like trying to win the Triple Crown and hasn't been done since 1998, when Marco Pantani won.  If Contador were to win the Tour and the world championship in the fall, he would be the third cyclist to do so in history.  That's sort of like pitching a perfect game in the World Series (Don Larsen for the New York Yankees against the Brooklyn Dodgers on October 8, 1956).

There are only three Americans in the Tour this year:  Tyler Farrar, Andrew Talansky, and Tejay Van Garderen (currently third).  Of these three, Talansky and Van Garderen are both contenders for general classification (the overall win after three weeks).  Rigoberto Uran, who also hails from Columbia, is also doing well.  Uran seems to be flying under everyone's radar but is worth watching.

My prediction for the podium is Froome, Quintana, and Contador with Froome on top. This is provided everyone stays healthy. I don’t think Nibali is as strong as last year. Van Garderen and Uran are still in the running. Talansky is out of it. He is 2:30 down on Froome and there are too many good riders ahead of him.

Tomorrow’s stage hugs the coast, so wind could be a big factor. Sunday is the team time trial. The third day in the Pyrénées (Thursday, July 17) will be huge, when they finish on Plateau de Beille.  If this stage doesn't establish a clear favorite, it will certainly knock a few contenders out of the running.

Look for me on Thursday, July 17 at Les Deux Velos, where I am staying.  This will be an isolated farm house on the rider’s left with about 70 km to go.  Les Deux Velos is after the small town of Biert and before the small town of Massat.  If the riders have started up the climb to Port de Lers, you have missed me.

Lot's of good photos and videos of the Tour at http://www.steephill.tv/tour-de-france/.